Monetary policy transmission in the EMS: A VAR approach

This paper analyzes monetary policy transmission in the European Monetary System using VAR techniques. After a discussion of several V AR identification procedures for the stance of monetary policy, this paper proposes an ¡identification scheme that is essentially consistent with the basic facts and does not have significant puzzles. The strategy is based on extracting the stance of monetary policy from the German system and using that structural shock in the VAR systems of other countries of the EMS. The results show that the stronger the commitment with the EMS discipline, the stronger the effect of the German monetary policy on the monetary policy of other EMS countries and the weaker the effect on the exchange rates. El documento analiza la transmisión de la política monetaria en el Sistema Monetario Europea usando técnicas de V AR (Vectores Autorregresivos). Tras discutir sobre varios procedimientos de V AR para la identificación de la situación de la política monetaria, se propone un esquema de identificación, el cual es esencialmente consistente con los hechos económicos. La estrategia está basada en extraer la situación de la política monetaria del sistema alemán y utilizar el "shock" estructural en los sistemas V AR de otros países del SME. Los resultados demuestran que a mayor compromiso con la disciplina del SME, más fuerte es el efecto de la política monetaria alemana en la política monetaria de otros países del SME y más débil el efecto sobre los tipos de cambio.Transmisión de política monetaria, vectores autorregresivos estructurales Monetary policy transmission, structural VAR

FIGHTING AGAINST MALARIA: PREVENT WARS WHILE WAITING FOR THE "MIRACULOUS" VACCINE

The World Health Organization estimates that 300 million clinical cases of malaria occur annually and its incidence increased during the 90's. There are basically two factors behind the incidence of malaria: "geographical destiny", or ecological conditions, and social conditions, which are related with unstable populations or movements of people. In this paper we explore the influence of civil wars and refugees from wars on the incidence of malaria in the asylum countries using a large panel data. The panel structure helps to separate "geographical destiny" from other social conditions. The results of the estimation show the importance of civil wars? refugees on the increase of malaria during recent years. La Organización Mundial de la Salud estima que cada año se producen 300 millones de nuevos casos de malaria y su incidencia ha aumentado durante los años 90. Hay básicamente dos factores explicativos de la incidencia de la malaria: ¿destino geográfico¿, o condiciones ecológicas, y el contacto social, que está relacionado con movimientos de la población. En este trabajo estudiamos la influencia de las guerras civiles y los refugiados generados por dichas guerras sobre la incidencia de la malaria en los países de asilo usando datos de panel. Esta estructura ayuda a separar el ¿destino geográfico¿ de las condiciones sociales. Los resultados de la estimación muestran la importancia de los refugiados de guerras civiles sobre el incremento de la incidencia de la malaria.malaria, migraciones, condiciones ecológicas. Malaria, migrations, ecological conditions.

- A THEORY OF RELIGIOUS CONFLICT AND ITS EFFECT ON GROWTH

This paper analyzes the role of religious conflict in the process of development of a country. We construct an index of religious polarization using data on the proportions of each religion in a country. The index of polarization is an alternative to the usual fragmentation index. We argue that for the case of religious conflict the fragmentation index is less appropriate than the polarization measure. We include the religious polarization index in a growth regression specification to determine the effect of religious conflicts on growth. The main finding is that religious conflict is an important factor in explaining economic growth and it is also an important explanation for the so called ¿Africa¿s growth tragedy¿. Moreover, religious polarization has a larger explanatory power on growth than ethnolinguistic and and religious fragmentation. Este trabajo analiza el papel de los conflictos religiosos en el desarrollo de un país. Hemos construido un índice de polarización religiosa utilizando los datos de proporción de cada religión en un país. El índice de polarización es una alternativa al habitual índice de fragmentación. Sostenemos que para el caso de conflictos religiosos, el índice de fragmentación es menos apropiado que el de polarización. Incluimos el índice de polarización religiosa en una regresión de crecimiento para determinar el efecto de los conflictos religiosos sobre el crecimiento. El resultado principal es que el conflicto religioso es un factor importante al explicar el crecimiento económico y también al explicar la llamada 'tragedia del crecimiento de África'. Además, la polarización religiosa tiene mayor poder explicativo sobre el crecimiento que la fragmentación etnolingüística y religiosa.índice de polarización religiosa, índice de fragmentación, crecimiento económico. index of religious polarization, fragmentation index, economic growth.

Any hope that a revival of Spain’s housing market could help kick-start the country’s economy is likely to prove misplaced

Recent months have seen house prices in Spain rise for the first time in six years, after the housing sector was badly hit by the financial crisis. José García Montalvo writes that one of the most damaging aspects of the crisis in Spain was that the housing bubble experienced during the 2000s was also accompanied by declining productivity. He notes that the underlying picture in the real estate sector remains fragile and that in contrast to previous economic crises in Spain, a revival of the housing market is unlikely to offer a route to economic recovery

- LIQUIDEZ Y MARKET MAKERS EN EL MERCADO DE FUTUROS: UN ANÁLISIS CON DATOS DE MUY ALTA FRECUENCIA

This paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of price changes in the Spanish futures market and its determinants using data on transactions observed during several days. The econometrictechnique is the ordered probit, which allows the accommodation of the main characteristics of the data: price changes are quoted in increments of a minimum and transactions are irregularly spaced in time. The estimates are used to measure the liquidity of the market and the effect of the introduction of market makers on liquidity. Este trabajo analiza la dinámica de los cambios de precios en el mercado de futuros español y sus factores determinantes utilizando datos de transacciones para varios días de negociación. La técnica econométrica utilizada es un probit ordenado que permite acomodar los principales características de dichos datos: cambios en múltiplos de un mínimo e intervalos irregulares de tiempo entre transacciones. Los resultados de la estimación se utilizan para medir la liquidez del mercado y el efecto de la introducción de market makers sobre dicha medida de liquidez.Microestructura, datos de muy alta frecuencia, liquidez. Microstructure, ultra high frequency data, liquidity

GMM ESTIMATION OF COUNT PANEL DATA MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS AND PREDETERMINED INSTRUMENTS

The "traditional" approach to the estimation of count panel data models with fixed effects is the conditional maximum-likelihood estimator. The pseudo maximum-likelihood principle can be used in these models to obtain orthogonality conditions that generate a robust estimator. However, this estimator is inconsistent when the instruments are not strictly exogenous. This paper proposes a GMM estimator for count panel data models with fixed fixed effects, based on a transformation of the conditional mean specification, that is consistent even when the explanatory variables are predetermined. Two applications are discussed: the relationship between patents and R&D expenditures and the explanation of technology transfer . La estimación "tradicional" de modelos de panel con datos de número de ocurrencias (count data) ha estado basada en el estimador condicional por maximaverosimilitud. El principio de la pseudo maximaverosimilitud puede utilizarse para obtener condiciones de ortogonalidad que generan un estimador robusto. Sin embargo, dicho estimador será inconsistente si los instrumentos no son estrictamente exogenos. Este trabajo propone un estimador por el método generalizado de los momentos para modelos de count data con efectos fijos, basado en una transformación de la,-especificación de la media condicionada, que es consistente incluso cuando las variable: explicativas son predeterminadas. Esta aproximación se aplica a dos casos de count data: la relación entre patentes y gastos en 1 +D y la explicación del número de licencias obtenidas por las empresas en el caso de transferencia de tecnología.Momentos condicionales, estimador condicional por maximaverosimilitud, principio de pseudo-maximaverosimilitud Conditional moment restrictions, conditional maximum-likelihood estimator, pseudo maximum-likelihood principle

Self-Referencing Fiber-Optic Intensity Sensors Using Ring Resonators and Fiber Bragg Gratings

An improved ring resonator self-referencing technique in a new reflection configuration for remote fiber-optic intensity sensors is demonstrated using fiber Bragg gratings. Sensor sensitivity doubles and a single fiber lead is used. The sensor is interrogated at two subcarrier frequencies having a high rejection of interference from laser source intensity fluctuations and loss in the fiber lead. We experimentally demonstrate the efficiency of the new reflection configuration, the usefulness of the theoretical model proposed, and discuss design parameters for optimum insertion lossesThis work was supported in part by CICYT (TIC2003-03783 and TEC2006-13273-C03-03-MIC), in part by UC3M (FAVICOBIS), in part by CAM (FACTOTEM-CM:S-0505/ESP/000417), and in part by COST 299.Publicad

One, two, (three), infinity: Newspaper and lab beauty-contest experiments

"Beauty-contest" is a game in which participants have to choose, typically, a number in [0,100], the winner being the person whose number is closest to a proportion of the average of all chosen numbers. We describe and analyze Beauty-contest experiments run in newspapers in UK, Spain, and Germany and find stable patterns of behavior across them, despite the uncontrollability of these experiments. These results are then compared with lab experiments involving undergraduates and game theorists as subjects, in what must be one of the largest empirical corroborations of interactive behavior ever tried. We claim that all observed behavior, across a wide variety of treatments and subject pools, can be interpreted as iterative reasoning. Level-1 reasoning, Level-2 reasoning and Level-3 reasoning are commonly observed in all the samples, while the equilibrium choice (Level-Maximum reasoning) is only prominently chosen by newspaper readers and theorists. The results show the empirical power of experiments run with large subject-pools, and open the door for more experimental work performed on the rich platform offered by newspapers and magazines.Experiments, bounded rationality, Beauty-contest, parallelism, Leex

Combination of bioanalytical approaches and quantitative proteomics for the elucidation of the toxicity mechanisms associated to TiO2 nanoparticles exposure in human keratinocytes.

Titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO2-NPs) are being used in several consumer products. The high refractive index of nano-scaled titanium dioxide particles allows them to protect from UV radiation, and so, they can be found as one of the main components of cosmetics and suncreens. Many studies have reported the potential toxicological effects associated to TiO2-NPs such as ROS generation, DNA damage, apoptosis and cell cycle arrest, among others. The continuous and systematic use of TiO2-NPs in cosmetic products requires a full comprehension of the risks involving their sustained contact with the human skin. Thus, it is important to evaluate not only the hazardous effects but to elucidate the biomolecular mechanisms involved in such effects. Based on this premises, we have evaluated the potential toxicity of TiO2-NPs using a human epithelial cell culture (HaCaT cells) as in-vitro model, together with different bioanalytical approaches and mass spectrometrybased quantitative proteomics, to gain a deeper insight into the molecular mechanisms of toxicity associated to TiO2-NPs exposurepre-print451 K